I think his argument for fair trade is also skillfully and intelligently undermined (although this may not make pleasant reading for some of those involved in this campaign). Paul's studies have determined that despite the superficial benefits, fair trade only encourages third world economies to continue producing nothing but the same product all the time. This robs these economies of the diversity of exports that is so crucial to their growth.
And Paul also points out that there is no greater trap for bottom billion countries than the conflict trap. Indeed about 50% of the wars that start in bottom billion countries are relapses into old wars. Here Paul offers a well thought out break from conventional wisdom. Usually all post-war aid is dumped into a country in the two or three years immediately following the conflict. However these years are typically the most disorganised and are most prone to wasted expenditure. The wasted expenditure and resultant poverty can often plunge the country back into war.
In this book, Paul convincingly argues two solutions, one popular, one unpopular. The extension of aid to ten years after a conflict will be a popular idea and clearly a relatively effective one. However his suggestion of military intervention is likely to be less popular. We must not let Iraq blind us in this respect. The U.N. has done and continues to do effective work in this sphere and perhaps this will help the bottom billion citizens on the road to development.
I believe it was very difficult for Paul to anatomise all the problems of the bottom billion in an individual book and it is equally difficult to anatomise his book in this review. All that I must really say is that it is a fantastic and well thought out read and enthralling for anyone with an interest in economics and politics.
